Bihar’s new House set for three-decade low in Muslim representation

Bihar’s next Assembly is poised to record its lowest Muslim representation in 34 years, with only 10 Muslim candidates projected to win — despite the community making up 17.7% of the state’s 13.07 crore population, according to the 2022–23 caste survey. The dramatic fall marks the steepest dip across eight consecutive elections since 1990.

The slide is not incidental. Both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan fielded fewer Muslim candidates than in 2020, reducing the community’s presence on ballots and shrinking its eventual footprint in the House.

Amid this churn, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has emerged as an unexpected countercurrent. After being denied entry into the Mahagathbandhan, the party contested 25 seats and held ground in five—all in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal belt of Araria, Purnea, Katihar and Kishanganj. State party chief Akhtarul Iman retained Amour, reaffirming AIMIM’s niche but durable influence in the region.

The JD(U), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, fielded four Muslim candidates but only outgoing minister Mohd Zama Khan is set to win, from Chainpur in Kaimur district—a seat with no significant Muslim presence. BJP leaders mounted an aggressive outreach to Hindu voters there, consolidating the NDA’s position.

Among NDA allies, Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) fielded a lone Muslim candidate, Mohd Kalimuddin, who finished a distant third in Bahadurganj, where AIMIM’s Md Tauseef Alam clinched a commanding victory of over 28,700 votes. Congress’s Md Masawar Alam stood second.

In the Mahagathbandhan, RJD’s Asif Ahmad secured Bisfi, while Osama Sahab—son of the late strongman Shahabuddin—won Raghunathpur, marking the first electoral victory for the family in 21 years. The RJD dropped its sitting MLA Hari Shanker Yadav in favour of Osama, banking on a sizeable Yadav vote combined with Muslim, EBC, Dalit and upper-caste support.

The Congress repeated its 2020 performance in Seemanchal, with victories for Mohd Qamrul Hoda in Kishanganj and Abidur Rehman in Araria. However, its Legislature Party leader Shakeel Ahmed Khan suffered a setback, losing to JD(U)’s Dulal Chandra Goswami by 18,368 votes.

Compared to previous cycles, the decline is stark. In 2010, Muslim MLAs made up 7.81% of the House with 19 members; the figure rose to 24 in 2015 (9.87%) before dropping to 19 in 2020. Notably, JD(U) had fielded 11 Muslim candidates in 2020—but all of them lost.

The 2025 verdict, however, marks an unprecedented contraction. With just 10 Muslim MLAs poised to take oath, Bihar’s political map signals a structural reshaping—one where electoral calculations, candidate selection and shifting alliances have sharply redrawn the contours of minority representation.