NDA sweeps early Bihar trends as Nitish Kumar surges towards a record 5th term

As ballots were tallied across all 243 constituencies of Bihar on November 14 morning, early trends signalled a sweeping surge for the NDA, placing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on the brink of a historic 5th term.

By 11 am — three hours into counting — the NDA had surged ahead on 192 seats, dwarfing the Mahagathbandhan’s modest 48-seat lead tally.

The JD(U), once again emerging as the axis of the ruling coalition, led on 84 seats, while the BJP followed closely with 80 seats. Chirag Paswan’s LJP-RV posted strong gains with 23 leads, and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM registered 4.

The Mahagathbandhan, despite a high-pitched campaign, lagged far behind: RJD led 35 seats, CPI(ML) secured six, Congress five, and the CPI(M) one.

The count, which began at 8 am, quickly validated the exit polls that predicted a smooth return for the NDA. The Opposition, however, had dismissed the forecasts as orchestrated, with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav alleging that pollsters were acting under BJP direction to influence Election Commission officials.

Mudslinging, murder, and a bitter campaign

The road to the 2025 mandate was turbulent. Both coalitions waged a bruising campaign filled with personal attacks, allegations of “jungle raj,” and fierce accusations over governance, corruption, and crime. A spate of high-profile murders including that of businessmen, policemen, and even an NRI — fuelled the political narrative, with the Mahagathbandhan accusing the NDA of presiding over lawlessness, while the NDA countered sharply by invoking Lalu-Rabri-era violence.

The results will determine whether Bihar voters have opted to reward Nitish Kumar’s political acrobatics and governance branding — or hand the reins to Tejashwi Yadav, who pitched himself as the face of generational change.

Jailed candidate leads, allies close ranks

The ECI confirmed that former Mokama MLA Anant Kumar Singh currently in jail since November 2 in connection with the Dularchand Yadav murder case was leading his seat by over 11,000 votes around 11 am.

With the NDA crossing key thresholds steadily, key allies began projecting Nitish Kumar as the inevitable Chief Minister. Union Minister and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi declared, “This is not unexpected. Nitish Kumar hi banenge mukhyamantri.” He predicted the Mahagathbandhan would be “restricted to 70–80 seats.”

BJP leaders taunt Opposition as trends widen

As the Mahagathbandhan’s lead count dipped, BJP MP Manan Mishra launched a stinging attack, saying alliance leaders had begun “hiding in their homes.” He credited the NDA’s performance to Prime Minister Modi and Nitish Kumar, adding that “threats from Tejashwi Yadav or anyone else” had no impact on the electorate.

By 10:33 am, the JD(U) led 77 seats and the BJP 73, while the NDA as a whole crossed 180 leads. Meanwhile, NDTV’s trend tracker placed the NDA at 169 seats shortly after 10:30 am, with the Mahagathbandhan stuck at just 70.

Mayawati’s BSP held a solitary lead in Ramgarh.

Congress says “early trends not final”

The Congress attempted to stay optimistic, with Bihar in-charge Krishna Allavaru insisting early figures “do not reflect the actual results” and expressing hope for “free and fair” counting through the day.

As counting continues, the real battle now appears to be over margins and mandate scale—not over who will form the government. Nitish Kumar, once again, is on the cusp of scripting Bihar’s next political chapter.