Balen Shah’s RSP heads for major win in Nepal polls, but PR system may reshape final seat tally

Former rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah and his party, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), are heading toward a major victory in Nepal’s latest parliamentary elections, dramatically reshaping the country’s political landscape.

Early results show the RSP securing a sweeping lead in the first-past-the-post (FPTP) constituencies, defeating several leaders of traditional parties. Shah himself scored a decisive victory in the Jhapa-5 constituency, defeating former prime minister K. P. Sharma Oli by a wide margin.

However, Nepal’s election system means the final seat tally in parliament will not be determined solely by constituency wins. The country follows a mixed electoral system for its 275-member House of Representatives, combining direct elections with proportional representation.

Out of the total seats, 165 members are elected through FPTP constituencies, where candidates with the highest votes win their seats directly. The remaining 110 seats are allocated through proportional representation (PR) based on the nationwide vote share secured by each party.

Under this system, voters cast two ballots: one for a local candidate and another for a political party. Parties must secure at least three percent of the national vote to qualify for PR seats, which are then distributed according to their vote share using a proportional formula.

This means that even if the RSP dominates the constituency races, the final parliamentary numbers may shift once proportional seats are allocated. Smaller parties that perform well in the nationwide party vote could gain additional representation in parliament.

The election marks the first major national vote since the 2025 youth-led protests that toppled the previous government and triggered widespread dissatisfaction with traditional political parties. The rise of Shah and the RSP reflects growing support among younger voters demanding political reform and accountability.

If current trends continue, Shah could become Nepal’s next prime minister, representing a significant generational shift in the country’s politics and the emergence of a new political force challenging decades-old party dominance.