Forecast by IITM: Sharp Rise in Pollution Levels Expected

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has issued an early warning that several northern and central Indian cities are likely to experience severe air pollution episodes during the upcoming Diwali period. According to forecasts under the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) framework, concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are projected to reach ‘severe’ levels in cities such as Delhi, Lucknow, Kanpur, Patna, and Chandigarh.

The IITM attributed this likely deterioration to a combination of firecracker emissions, crop residue burning in northwestern states, and unfavourable meteorological conditions such as low wind speed and temperature inversion, which trap pollutants close to the ground.

Causes: Firecrackers, Stubble Burning, and Weather Factors

Every year, the post-monsoon period witnesses a sharp deterioration in air quality across northern India. This year’s forecasts indicate a convergence of pollution sources.

• Firecracker combustion during Diwali adds short-lived but intense bursts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5).
• Stubble burning in Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Uttar Pradesh contributes nearly 30–40% of Delhi’s PM2.5 load in late October and early November.
• Meteorological conditions, including calm winds, dry air, and cooler nights, exacerbate pollutant accumulation, creating a smog blanket over the Indo-Gangetic Plain.

Experts warn that without immediate mitigation measures, the Air Quality Index (AQI) could remain in the ‘severe’ to ‘very poor’ category for several consecutive days.

Health and Economic Implications

The pollution surge poses grave risks to public health, particularly for children, the elderly, and those with respiratory or cardiac conditions. Medical experts report seasonal spikes in respiratory illnesses, asthma, and eye irritation during this period.

The economic cost is equally alarming — studies estimate that India loses over USD 30 billion annually in lost productivity and healthcare expenditure due to pollution-related diseases. Prolonged poor air quality also affects tourism, outdoor labour, and education through repeated school closures.

Policy Responses and the Role of States

The Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) has directed states to enforce Graded Response Action Plans (GRAP), including curbs on construction, vehicular emissions, and industrial activity. Several states have restricted or banned firecracker sales, promoting ‘green crackers’ instead.

The Delhi and Punjab governments are coordinating efforts through Pusa bio-decomposer spraying and mechanised stubble management, though ground-level enforcement remains inconsistent. Experts emphasise that long-term solutions require regional coordination, investment in clean energy, and strengthening of urban air-quality governance.

Conclusion

The IITM’s warning underscores the urgency of addressing India’s recurring Diwali pollution crisis through science-based interventions, inter-state cooperation, and behavioural change. Unless collective action is sustained beyond festive periods, the annual winter smog will continue to threaten both the health and economy of India’s most populous region.